MACRO

Dow ·

An escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions and warnings over rising US Treasury yields dominated the overnight session as US equity futures pointed to a positive open.

Geopolitics and Policy CNBC, 2026-10-09: A pilot was killed in attacks by Iran-backed Houthis on Riyadh airport, prompting the Saudi-led coalition to vow a "firm" response. Financial Times, 2026-10-09: Pimco warned that US 10-year Treasury yields risk hitting 6% for the first time since 2000. CNBC, 2026-10-09: South African lawyer Navi Pillay was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her efforts to prosecute war crimes and genocide. CNBC, 2026-10-09: US Treasury Secretary Bessent hired Judy Shelton, Donald Trump's former Federal Reserve board nominee, as an adviser.

Energy and Commodities Yahoo Finance: WTI crude fell 0.94% to $90.63, while Brent crude dropped 1.38% to $102.84. Yahoo Finance: Gold rose 1.16% to $4,205.

Equities and Corporate News Yahoo Finance: US equity futures rose, with S&P 500 futures up 0.37% to 7,845 and Nasdaq 100 futures up 0.77% to 31,207, following a down day where the S&P 500 fell 0.47% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.25%. Yahoo Finance: In Asia, South Korea's KOSPI fell 2.62% to 6,626, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 1.79% to 24,211. Europe's Euro Stoxx 50 gained 1.12% to 6,196. CNBC, 2026-10-09: Delta Air Lines cut its 2026 forecast due to a fuel price surge, though the CEO noted that demand remains strong. BBC Business, 2026-10-09: An Nvidia-backed data center firm scrapped its IPO plans as concerns over AI valuations deepen. Financial Times, 2026-10-09: SoftBank is seeking $100 billion from Gulf investors to expand its AI investments.

Rates and Currencies Yahoo Finance: The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 0.046 percentage points to 5.231%, and the 30-year yield fell 0.055 percentage points to 5.606%. Yahoo Finance: The Dollar index (DXY) rose 0.06% to 102.20. Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin rose 1.69% to $83,056.

What happened

  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 futures 7,845 (+0.37%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq 100 futures 31,207 (+0.77%)
  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (last close) 7,765 (−0.47%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq Composite (last close) 27,193 (−1.25%)
  • Yahoo Finance: VIX 15.17 (−1.56%)
  • Yahoo Finance: 10-year Treasury yield 5.231% (−0.046 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: 30-year Treasury yield 5.606% (−0.055 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: Dollar index (DXY) 102.20 (+0.06%)
  • Yahoo Finance: WTI crude 90.63 (−0.94%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Brent crude 102.84 (−1.38%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Gold 4,205 (+1.16%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin 83,056 (+1.69%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nikkei 225 69,031 (−0.02%)
  • Yahoo Finance: KOSPI 6,626 (−2.62%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Hang Seng 24,211 (+1.79%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Euro Stoxx 50 6,196 (+1.12%)
  • CNBC, 2026-10-09: Delta Air Lines cuts 2026 forecast on fuel surge, but CEO says demand is still strong
  • CNBC, 2026-10-09: How to navigate new tax rules in year-end planning, according to top-ranked advisors
  • CNBC, 2026-10-09: Blockchain.com seeks U.S. approval for prediction markets, crypto derivatives trading
  • CNBC, 2026-10-09: Ferrari’s chairman is bullish on AI. He’s less certain how businesses will cash in

Dow ·

Oil prices jumped nearly 5% overnight following a tanker attack and slowing flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving the global energy market higher while global equities and US futures declined.

Energy and Commodities Financial Times, 2026-10-08: Oil prices jumped on a tanker attack and slowing flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude rising to 105.05 (+4.84%) and WTI crude climbing to 92.54 (+4.83%) on the tape. Yahoo Finance: Gold edged up to 4,149 (+0.20%) on the tape.

Equities and Volatility Yahoo Finance: US futures pointed to a lower open, with S&P 500 futures down to 7,820 (−0.42%) and Nasdaq 100 futures down to 31,181 (−0.70%). This follows yesterday's close where the S&P 500 fell to 7,802 (−0.22%) and the Nasdaq Composite fell to 27,539 (−0.22%). Yahoo Finance: The VIX rose to 15.71 (+4.18%) on the tape. Yahoo Finance: Asian markets closed lower, with the KOSPI down to 6,626 (−2.62%), the Nikkei 225 down to 69,042 (−1.42%), and the Hang Seng down to 23,786 (−1.43%). Yahoo Finance: European equities fell, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down to 6,129 (−0.83%).

Rates and the Dollar Yahoo Finance: Treasury yields edged higher, with the 10-year yield at 5.277% (+0.008 pt) and the 30-year yield at 5.661% (+0.020 pt). Yahoo Finance: The Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly to 102.34 (+0.10%).

Policy and Geopolitics CNBC, 2026-10-08: Donald Trump stated he does not want an Iran deal as reports emerge that the U.S. is preparing for a "massive bombing." Financial Times, 2026-10-08: Houthi attacks on Saudi airports killed three people. CNBC, 2026-10-08: Russia's internet giant Yandex halted operations at a major data center following a drone attack. CNBC, 2026-10-08: The New York Fed reported that inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs.

Company and Sector News CNBC, 2026-10-08: TSMC's September sales surged year-over-year, driven by strong AI chip demand. CNBC, 2026-10-08: PepsiCo cut its earnings forecast, citing a longer-than-expected turnaround in North America. CNBC, 2026-10-08: AI startup Manus raised $500 million in its first funding round since its breakup with Meta.

What to watch today Market reaction to the escalation in the Middle East and its ongoing impact on energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The opening of the US cash equity session following the downward move in index futures and rising oil prices.

What happened

  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 futures 7,820 (−0.42%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq 100 futures 31,181 (−0.70%)
  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (last close) 7,802 (−0.22%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq Composite (last close) 27,539 (−0.22%)
  • Yahoo Finance: VIX 15.71 (+4.18%)
  • Yahoo Finance: 10-year Treasury yield 5.277% (+0.008 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: 30-year Treasury yield 5.661% (+0.020 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: Dollar index (DXY) 102.34 (+0.10%)
  • Yahoo Finance: WTI crude 92.54 (+4.83%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Brent crude 105.05 (+4.84%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Gold 4,149 (+0.20%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin 82,337 (−1.13%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nikkei 225 69,042 (−1.42%)
  • Yahoo Finance: KOSPI 6,626 (−2.62%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Hang Seng 23,786 (−1.43%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Euro Stoxx 50 6,129 (−0.83%)
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: Skydance co-CEOs Ellison and Kreiz speak with CNBC days after finalizing WBD acquisition
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: Hundreds of new pro sports team ETFs lead world of retail investing to the edge of gambling
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: Inflation on many everyday items was entirely due to tariffs, NY Fed says
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: PepsiCo cuts earnings forecast as North American turnaround takes longer than expected

Dow ·

Oil prices surged and global equities retreated overnight as escalating Middle East tensions and a reported U.S. preparation for a "massive bombing" overshadowed a record-breaking profit forecast from Samsung.

Energy and Commodities CNBC, 2026-10-08: Oil gained as Middle East hostilities stoked supply worries, with WTI crude rising to 89.73 (+1.64%) and Brent crude reaching 102.18 (+1.98%) on the tape. CNBC, 2026-10-07: A supertanker was chartered from the Gulf Coast to China for $76 million, a rate ten times higher than pre-war levels. Yahoo Finance: Gold rose to 4,158 (+0.42%) on the tape.

Policy and Geopolitics CNBC, 2026-10-08: Trump stated he is "not keen" on a deal with Iran as reports emerged that the U.S. is preparing for a "massive bombing." CNBC, 2026-10-07: Trump's diesel order exposed White House limits in countering surging fuel prices.

Equities and Tech Financial Times, 2026-10-08: Samsung's profit is forecast to surge ninefold to a record $80 billion for the third quarter, driven by intense AI chip demand. CNBC, 2026-10-07: Apollo and major banks are in talks to finance SpaceX's $40 billion purchase of Nvidia GPUs. Yahoo Finance: US stock futures remained flat ahead of the open, with S&P 500 futures at 7,849 (−0.05%) and Nasdaq 100 futures at 31,395 (−0.02%). Yahoo Finance: Asian and European markets fell, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.95%, the KOSPI dropping 1.42%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 declining 1.47%.

Rates and the Dollar Yahoo Finance: The 10-year Treasury yield edged up slightly to 5.277% (+0.008 pt) on the tape, while the 30-year yield rose to 5.661% (+0.020 pt). CNBC, 2026-10-07: The 10-year Treasury yield backed off from a 24-year high earlier in the week after a solid bond auction eased demand fears. Yahoo Finance: The Dollar index (DXY) hovered at 102.26 (+0.02%).

What to watch today Market reaction to escalating geopolitical rhetoric and its immediate impact on global shipping and energy supply chains. The opening of US equity markets following yesterday's minor decline (S&P 500 closed at 7,802, down 0.22%) amid rising yields and oil prices.

What happened

  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 futures 7,849 (−0.05%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq 100 futures 31,395 (−0.02%)
  • Yahoo Finance: S&P 500 (last close) 7,802 (−0.22%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nasdaq Composite (last close) 27,539 (−0.22%)
  • Yahoo Finance: VIX 15.08 (+0.47%)
  • Yahoo Finance: 10-year Treasury yield 5.277% (+0.008 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: 30-year Treasury yield 5.661% (+0.020 pt)
  • Yahoo Finance: Dollar index (DXY) 102.26 (+0.02%)
  • Yahoo Finance: WTI crude 89.73 (+1.64%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Brent crude 102.18 (+1.98%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Gold 4,158 (+0.42%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin 82,783 (−3.24%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Nikkei 225 69,373 (−0.95%)
  • Yahoo Finance: KOSPI 6,707 (−1.42%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Hang Seng 23,995 (−0.56%)
  • Yahoo Finance: Euro Stoxx 50 6,180 (−1.47%)
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: Trump says he is not keen on a deal with Iran as U.S. reportedly prepares for 'massive bombing'
  • CNBC, 2026-10-08: Elon Musk blames Indian 'oligarchs' for stalling Starlink launch
  • Financial Times, 2026-10-08: Samsung profit surges ninefold to $80bn on AI chip demand
  • BBC Business, 2026-10-08: AI chip boom pushes Samsung profits to record $80bn